The latest TNPOLITICO Probability Tracker shows Republican Matt Van Epps maintaining a 79 percent chance of winning the Dec. 2 special election, with Democrat Aftyn Behn improving to 21 percent after new polling and organizational gains. The model reflects a race that has tightened slightly but still favors Van Epps heading into early voting.
Marsha Blackburn maintains her lead in TNPOLITICO’s GOP Governor Probability Tracker. John Rose remains strong in rural Reagan Dinners, keeping the race competitive as Tennessee’s Republican primary map divides between suburban and small-county bases.
TNPOLITICO’s latest update shows Matt Van Epps holding an 81 percent chance of winning the Tennessee 7th Congressional District race, while Aftyn Behn sits at 19 percent. Van Epps remains the clear favorite ahead of the Dec. 2 special election, but Behn’s grassroots and digital outreach have tightened the contest slightly as early voting approaches.
Marsha Blackburn widens her lead in the Republican governor’s race after a strong showing in the Bartlett Festival straw poll. This week’s TNPOLITICO Probability Tracker update reflects rising grassroots enthusiasm for Blackburn and steady financial strength from challenger John Rose.
