TNPOLITICO’s latest update shows Matt Van Epps holding an 81 percent chance of winning the Tennessee 7th Congressional District race, while Aftyn Behn sits at 19 percent. Van Epps remains the clear favorite ahead of the Dec. 2 special election, but Behn’s grassroots and digital outreach have tightened the contest slightly as early voting approaches.
A viral meme, hundreds of thousands in PAC spending, and a feud between two conservative power centers have laid bare the fractures within Tennessee’s Republican Party.
Follow real-time results from Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District primary election. Updated automatically as precincts report across all 14 counties, with live vote totals for both Republican and Democratic races.
Heavy rain and late-season thunderstorms could play a decisive role as voters cast ballots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District primary. Both parties enter Election Day with clear frontrunners—but turnout, not persuasion, may determine how wide the margins become.
Marsha Blackburn widens her lead in the Republican governor’s race after a strong showing in the Bartlett Festival straw poll. This week’s TNPOLITICO Probability Tracker update reflects rising grassroots enthusiasm for Blackburn and steady financial strength from challenger John Rose.
Jerri Green is the only Tennessee Democrat running an active campaign for governor, but her Taylor Swift–themed outreach highlights a deeper problem: a party that entertains rather than competes. Tennessee voters deserve more than viral videos—they deserve a serious alternative to Marsha Blackburn.
With early voting finished and Election Day approaching, Democrats in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District are heading into a close and unpredictable primary. The race centers on Nashville’s heavy turnout, where Aftyn Behn, Vincent Dixie, and Bo Mitchell are competing for the votes that will likely decide who advances to November.
An anonymous postcard in Tennessee’s 7th District warned Republicans they’d be tracked if they fail to vote. With no disclaimer and a Texas postmark, the mailer has been disavowed by party leaders and raised questions about who is behind it and what the intent may be.
Former President Donald Trump endorsed Matt Van Epps just four days before the GOP primary in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, reshaping the race overnight. State Rep. Lee Reeves suspended his campaign within hours and backed Van Epps, leaving the field effectively consolidated. With Trump’s backing, establishment endorsements, and a strong fundraising edge, Van Epps is now virtually assured the nomination.
National outlet Inside Elections framed Tennessee’s 7th District as an “upset in the making.” Our analysis shows why that narrative ignores the money, endorsements, and turnout realities that define this race.
